UFC 139: Shogun vs. Henderson
Location: San Jose, California
Venue: HP Pavilion
Broadcast: Pay-per-view, Spike TV and Facebook
MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view)
- Dan Henderson vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
- Shogun is the favorite and rightly so, he is the more dynamic fighter with a better chance to finish. Hendo is a very predictable fighter. You know Dan is looking for the big overhand right. I'm basing my pick on two things, 1) Henderson has been on a huge roll lately and during the Fiejao fight he showed us that he hasn't forgotten how to mix up his wrestling and striking to throw his opponent off their game, & 2) During & after Shogun's win over Forrest Griffin, he showed that his knees are just shot and he can barely walk & he could barely celebrate his victory, leading me to believe that he can't have great cardio and if you wrestle a bit you can tire him out. Henderson has a proven he has a great chin (never been TKO'd) & he's still a smart fighter at 41 years old. I say Hendo won't have much striking success early but he will be able to take Shogun down repeatedly and make him work to get back up. This'll give Henderson the advantage in the later rounds. I don't think there's a stoppage in this one, I'm predicting it goes the 5 rounds & hopefully we see a great battle between two legends.
- Henderson by decision.
- Cung Le vs. Wanderlei Silva
- Everyone seems to be writing off Silva because off his recent knock outs. While Silva's worn out chin is definitely a concern I think this is a terrible style match up for Cung. Cung is not a mix martial artist. He's a karate guy/b-movie star who wants to play MMA every one and a half years. Le uses that one strike at a time Sanshou style that is gonna beat up guy's like Frank Shamrock & Scott Smith but it's not gonna be terribly effective against a fighter like Silva who is gonna put the pressure on him real quick. Unless Cung lands the most perfect head kick in the first 30 seconds, Silva should put a beating on him.
- Silva by TKO, rd. 1.
- Brian Bowles vs. Urijah Faber
- Bowles has the power to stop Faber but he's much slower & definitely not as skilled. Faber likes to try crazy stuff to force scrambles & that has lead to bad things for him so I can see him getting caught by a big shot by Bowles but I think the more likely outcome is Faber outpointing Bowles for a 30-27 decision or maybe he can grab a guillotine choke in a scramble.
- Faber by decision.
- Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story
- I like this match up quite a lot. Kampmann is the more rounded fighter but doesn't always have a killer instinct & tends to let others control where the fight goes. While not as technically skilled, Story is an aggressive fighter who is not gonna let up.
- Story by decision.
- Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury
- Kingsbury should run game allover Bonnar.
- Kingsbury by TKO.
PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)
- Ryan Bader vs. Jason Brilz
- Brilz is a solid challenge & Bader hasn't looked stellar lately but I find it hard to see Brilz getting his hand raised. Bader does slow down in the later rounds but I think he can land a big shot to put Brilz away or at least take 2 of 3 rounds.
- Bader by decision.
- Michael McDonald vs. Alex Soto
- This should be all McDonald. Soto is a good challenge but he doesn't have what it takes to beat the upcoming prospect in McDonald.
- McDonald by decision.
PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)
- Tom Lawlor vs. Chris Weidman
- I got Weidman in this, he's got a solid, progressing game & should get the 'W'.
- Lawlor hits hard but tires himself out, punching from the shoulders.
- Weidman by submission.
- Nick Pace vs. Miguel Torres
- Torres should get back in the win column here. Torres has all the necessary skills to beat Pace as long as he doesn't get stuck on his back trying to win the fight from there.
- Torres by submission.
- Rafael dos Anjos vs. Gleison Tibau
- dos Anjos has the better overall game but Tibau is such a beast at 155lbs. Tibau can get take downs all day and maybe finish with some ground & pound, but don't ever count out the tough dos Anjos.
- Tibau by decision.
- Seth Baczynski vs. Matt Brown
- I like Brown's power & overall game but his cardio is such a liability. I'm taking Brown by TKO early but I'm not confident in that pick.
- Brown by TKO.
- Shamar Bailey vs. Danny Castillo
- Castillo is the better fighter here. I think Bailey loses and gets cut from the UFC roster.
- Castillo by TKO
