UFC 139: Shogun vs. Henderson

Date: Nov 19, 2011

Location: San Jose, California

Venue: HP Pavilion

Broadcast: Pay-per-view, Spike TV and Facebook

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view)

• Dan Henderson vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
• Shogun is the favorite and rightly so, he is the more dynamic fighter with a better chance to finish. Hendo is a very predictable fighter. You know Dan is looking for the big overhand right. I'm basing my pick on two things, 1) Henderson has been on a huge roll lately and during the Fiejao fight he showed us that he hasn't forgotten how to mix up his wrestling and striking to throw his opponent off their game, & 2) During & after Shogun's win over Forrest Griffin, he showed that his knees are just shot and he can barely walk & he could barely celebrate his victory, leading me to believe that he can't have great cardio and if you wrestle a bit you can tire him out. Henderson has a proven he has a great chin (never been TKO'd) & he's still a smart fighter at 41 years old. I say Hendo won't have much striking success early but he will be able to take Shogun down repeatedly and make him work to get back up. This'll give Henderson the advantage in the later rounds. I don't think there's a stoppage in this one, I'm predicting it goes the 5 rounds & hopefully we see a great battle between two legends.
• Henderson by decision.
• 
• Cung Le vs. Wanderlei Silva
• Everyone seems to be writing off Silva because off his recent knock outs. While Silva's worn out chin is definitely a concern I think this is a terrible style match up for Cung. Cung is not a mix martial artist. He's a karate guy/b-movie star who wants to play MMA every one and a half years. Le uses that one strike at a time Sanshou style that is gonna beat up guy's like Frank Shamrock & Scott Smith but it's not gonna be terribly effective against a fighter like Silva who is gonna put the pressure on him real quick. Unless Cung lands the most perfect head kick in the first 30 seconds, Silva should put a beating on him.
• Silva by TKO, rd. 1.
  
• Brian Bowles vs. Urijah Faber
• Bowles has the power to stop Faber but he's much slower & definitely not as skilled. Faber likes to try crazy stuff to force scrambles & that has lead to bad things for him so I can see him getting caught by a big shot by Bowles but I think the more likely outcome is Faber outpointing Bowles for a 30-27 decision or maybe he can grab a guillotine choke in a scramble.
• Faber by decision.
  
• Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story
• I like this match up quite a lot. Kampmann is the more rounded fighter but doesn't always have a killer instinct & tends to let others control where the fight goes. While not as technically skilled, Story is an aggressive fighter who is not gonna let up.
• Story by decision.
  
• Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury
• Kingsbury should run game allover Bonnar.
• Kingsbury by TKO.

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)

• Ryan Bader vs. Jason Brilz
• Brilz is a solid challenge & Bader hasn't looked stellar lately but I find it hard to see Brilz getting his hand raised. Bader does slow down in the later rounds but I think he can land a big shot to put Brilz away or at least take 2 of 3 rounds.
• Bader by decision.
  
• Michael McDonald vs. Alex Soto
• This should be all McDonald. Soto is a good challenge but he doesn't have what it takes to beat the upcoming prospect in McDonald.
• McDonald by decision.

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

• Tom Lawlor vs. Chris Weidman
• I got Weidman in this, he's got a solid, progressing game & should get the 'W'.
• Lawlor hits hard but tires himself out, punching from the shoulders.
• Weidman by submission.
• 
  
• Nick Pace vs. Miguel Torres
• Torres should get back in the win column here. Torres has all the necessary skills to beat Pace as long as he doesn't get stuck on his back trying to win the fight from there.
• Torres by submission.
• 
  
• Rafael dos Anjos vs. Gleison Tibau
• dos Anjos has the better overall game but Tibau is such a beast at 155lbs. Tibau can get take downs all day and maybe finish with some ground & pound, but don't ever count out the tough dos Anjos.
• Tibau by decision.
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• Seth Baczynski vs. Matt Brown
• I like Brown's power & overall game but his cardio is such a liability. I'm taking Brown by TKO early but I'm not confident in that pick.
• Brown by TKO.
• 
  
• Shamar Bailey vs. Danny Castillo
• Castillo is the better fighter here. I think Bailey loses and gets cut from the UFC roster.
• Castillo by TKO

UFC On FOX 1 : Venasquez vs dos Antos !!!!!!

UFC on FOX 1: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos

Date: Nov 12, 2011

Location: Anaheim, California

Venue: Honda Center

Broadcast: FOX, Facebook and FOX.com

MAIN CARD (FOX)

Champ Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos

(heavyweight title)

I love this fight. This is the best heavyweight match up we've ever seen in MMA. These guys are indisputably the two best heavyweights in the world & it has this has all the makings of an instant classic. This a is a very hard fight to pick. On paper it looks like Cain has all the advantages & he should be able to mix up his take downs and striking, as well as his endless cardio to eventually tire out 'Cigano'. I'm feeling like this is Junior's fight. dos Antos has great take down defense, & is almost impossible to hold down. The big Brazilian has the best technical striking in the heavyweight division. Combine all those factors with Cain's long layoff & I think we see a new Champ tonight.

I'm not really rooting for either guy, I'm just rooting for a great fight & I hope we get a solid trilogy from these two elite fighters.

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook and FOX.com)

• Clay Guida vs. Ben Henderson

• This is a fight of the year type fight. Both guys are tough, with decent
  striking & solid wrestling skills. I hope we get a five round war but I'm
  predicting Bendo will pull of one of his wicked guillotines.
  Henderson by submission.
  
• Pablo Garza vs. Dustin Poirier
Poirier's problem is his defensive wrestling but I don't
think Garza is the man to expose that flaw.
I wouldn't be surprised if Garza could pull off a quick
submission but I'm taking Poirier by decision.
• 
  
  
  
  
• Ricardo Lamas vs. Cub Swanson
  
• This should be a decent scrap if Swanson
• avoids getting injured. I'm taking Lamas for the win.
• 
• Clay Harvsion vs. DaMarques Johnson
  I don't even want to pick this irrelevant fight.
  Johnson should get the win but neither fighter is UFC caliber
  
• Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto vs. Darren Uyenoyama
  I like Kid to get his first UFC win in this one.
  Kid's got the better striking, better wrestling, & even if he looks
  unmotivated he should be able to pick up the decision.
  

Robert Peralta vs. Mackens Semerzier

I like Mackens as the more rounded skilled fighter but I'm going

to go with the momentum of Peralta for the upset.

Alex Caceres vs. Cole Escovedo

Escovedo should get his first UFC victory

with an easy match up against 'Bruce Lee-Roy'.

Paul Bradley vs. Mike Pierce

I like Pierce pretty big in this. Pierce has better striking and solid wrestling

which should let him control where the fight goes.

Matt Lucas vs. Aaron Rosa

I honestly could not be less interested in this pointless heavyweight match up.

Let's go with Lucas for the win because I've never seen him fight.

UFC 130: Rampage vs. Hamill

Date: May 28, 2011
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena


MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view)

Matt Hamill vs. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson - I don't think Hammill has the striking to stand with Quinton & his wrestling isn't good enough to take him down either. I think Hammill will attempt a few unsuccessful takedowns and then try to box with Rampage. Hammill's tough & we never know how motivated Rampage is these days but I'll go with a Jackson by TKO, rd. 2. Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson - Both guys are decent heavy grapplers with Roy having the advantage since he beat Mir at Grappler's Quest in 2009. While both fighters have decent striking I feel Nelson is most durable. Mir doesn't really come back after he gets hit hard. Nelson by TKO, rd. 1. Travis Browne vs. Stefan Struve - I like Struve pretty big in this fight. He is more dynamic in every aspect of the game. Struve by decision.

Jorge Santiago vs. Brian Stann - Stann has been showing great improvements and even though Santiago is the better technical fighter I can't pick a guy with such a weak chin. Stann put Leben away with strikes and that leads me to believe he can put it on Santiago. Stann by TKO, rd. 1.Thiago Alves vs. Rick Story - Story is getting a chance to breakthrough o the main stage and I don't think he'll disappoint. Story will use a mix of wrestling and striking to beat up Alves for 3 rounds. Story by decision.

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)

Demetrious Johnson vs. Miguel Torres - This is the toughest fight to pick on this card and a great great match up. Johnson is small and Torres will try to use his jab to keep him away and stop the takedowns. I think it'll be a good back and forth. Torres by decision. Tim Boetsch vs. Kendall Grove - I don't like to pick Grove because of his glass chin but he's better than Boestch at every aspect of fighting . Grove by submission, rd. 2. PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

Rafaello Oliveira vs. Gleison Tibau - Tibau will get takedowns all day. Tibau by decision

Chris Cariaso vs. Michael McDonald - McDonald is a serious bantamweight contender and Cariaso shouldn't be too much of a hurdle. McDonald by decision. Renan Barao vs. Cole Escovedo - Barao by decision.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 24 : Nogueira Vs Davis

UFC - Fight Night 24
March 26, 2011
Key Arena,Seattle, Washington, United States

Phil Davis vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira - I'd be very surprised if Lil' Nog has anything for Davis. Nog could keep it standing and beat Davis up on the feet. Mr. Wonderful has far superior wrestling chops and a steadily improving Jits game. The main way I could see an upset here is if Davis gets too comfortable on the ground and gets caught by the BJJ ace. That being said, I'm going with a surprise pick and I'm taking 'Mr. Wonderful' Phil Davis to submit Nogueira rd. 2.

Dan Hardy vs. Anthony Johnson - This will be 'Fight of the Night', I'm sure of it. Both guys are excellent strikers and I doubt it even hits the floor. Both fighters are very tough but I'll take Johnson by decision (or maybe a TKO) since he's shown the tougher chin.

Leonard Garcia vs. Chan Sung Jung - I love that instead of getting the rematch we all wanted (Garcia/Phan) we're getting the other rematch everyone wants. Korean Zombie has been talking a more conservative/defensive style since he was KO'd by George Roop and I think that's what we'll see here. While I think Jung will get the better of all the exchanges and take much less damage I think he gets ripped off on the cards AGAIN. Garcia is very flawed fighter but he has proven to have a style that sways judges. Leonard is 3-2-1 in his last 6 fights when he should be 0-6. Garcia by split decision.
Amir Sadollah vs. DaMarques Johnson - I'm not really interested in both of the under performing Ultimate Fighters. Sadollah by armbar, rd. 1
John Hathaway vs. Kris McCray - This is another tough, close matchup but I see Hathaway being the more well rounded and getting the better of the TUF 11 alum. Hathaway by TKO, rd.3
Mike Russow vs. Jon Madsen - Madsen should be able to do what he does best, lay & pray. Madsen by decision.
Alex Caceres vs. Mackens Semerzier - I'll take Mack 'the Knife' to get Caceres down and run game on him. Semerzier by submission, let's call it an arm-triangle, rd. 1.
Aaron Simpson vs. Mario Miranda - Oh man, this is a very good match up and a very tough fight to call. Miranda has very underrated Jiu Jitsu and Simpson has a stellar wrestling game. I'll go Simpson by decision, but I'm not confident in that pick.

Sean McCorkle vs. Christian Morecraft - Not much intrigue here. Loser leaves town. I'll go McCorkle by TKO, rd. 1

Michael McDonald vs. Edwin Figueroa - I'm not too familiar with Figueroa but I've seen McDonald and he's definitely a talented young fighter. McDonald by decision.

Johny Hendricks vs. Anthony Waldburger - I think Hendricks will easily get top position on Waldburger and can work to a dominant decision but I'm gonna take an upset here and take Waldburger to pull out a sub. Waldburger by submission, rd. 1.

Nik Lentz vs. Waylon Lowe - There's gonna be a lot of clinching, maybe a takedown or two. Lentz by boring decision.

UFC 128 : SHOGUN vs JONES !!!!!!!!!

UFC 128 - Shogun vs. Jones
March 19, 2011, Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey, United States


Matchups:

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Mauricio Rua (No. 1 LHW,)vs. Jon Jones (No. 7 LHW) - Everyone seems to be overlooking the champ and already crowning Jones the new king of 205 lbs. Shogun has a very underrated Jiu Jitsu game and he hits very hard. We haven't seen what Jones' chin looks like if he does take a big clean shot. We haven't seen Jones fight off his back against a solid grappler. I think Jones will takedown Shogun repeatedly, Shogun will be able to sweep and get back up but eventually he'll get tired and start to slow down. Shogun is not to be overlooked and he will not go out without a fight. Jones by decision. This is definitely a more exciting than the Shogun vs Rashad fight.
Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland - Wineland is a solid fight but Faber is a class above. I see Faber striking with Eddie, hurting him and grabbing a submission from a scramble. Faber by rear naked choke, rd. 2.
Mirko Filipovic vs. Brendan Schaub - I love Cro Cop but he doesn't have much left. I don't see any motivation from Mirko, he's fighting for a paycheck and nothing else. Schaub is young, hungry and looking to to add names to his resume. I think he puts him away early. Schaub by TKO, rd. 1. Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus - We got a battle between two very tough fighters here. While Shalorus is technically deficient in striking he seems to prefer it over using his wrestling to get takedowns and do damage from top position. Miller should win this one. He could pull out a submission but I'm thinking we're gonna see a stand up battle and the judges siding with the New Jersey boy. Miller by decision. Nate Marquardt vs. Dan Miller - While I'm always rooting for the other Miller brother I don't think he has what it takes win this one. Marquardt is too well rounded and where he is weak, his wrestling, Miller doesn't have anything for him. Nate has better striking and more power. Not sure what happens when it hits the mat since both guys are excellent grapplers, but I'll take Marquardt by decision.

Anthony Njokuani vs. Edson Barboza Jr. - This one has 'Fight of the Night' written all over it. Both fighters are very good strikers with a variety of punches and kicks. I'm going with the newcomer, Barboza, to stop the Nigerian in his tracks with some vicious Muay Thai. Barboza Jr. by TKO, rd. 3.

Luis Artur Cane Jr. vs. Eliot Marshall - I don't see a blowout in this one but I think it stays mostly on the feet with Cane getting the advantage. Marshall hasn't really impressed since his stint on the Ultimate Fighter and hasn't beat great competition in getting back to the Octagon. Cane by decision.

Raphael Assuncao vs. Erik Koch - This is a great matchup. Both guys are very skilled and very tough. I was leaning Koch at first since he's got the height and reach advantage, but i can't pick against the caveman looking guy. Assuncao by decision.

Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian Loveland - I don't know how much of a battle Loveland is gonna put up against one of the best bantamweights in the world. Loveland is tough but he has a submission liability & Benavidez has a mean guillotine. Benavidez by submission, rd. 1.

Ricardo Almeida vs. Mike Pyle - Pyle is a tough up and coming fighter who is gonna bring the fight. I think the BJJ ace can neutralize and control Pyle. Almeida by decision. Kurt Pellegrino vs. Gleison Tibau - Tibau should be able to repeatedly get takedowns, stay out of submission trouble, and ground-and-pound to a tough decision victory over Pellegrino. Tibau by decision.
Costantinos Philippou vs. Nick Catone - Catone by decision